How VPI Is Calculated

Three steps turn raw squad cost and match data into a single, comparable performance-per-pound score.

Normalize for squad strength

Squad market value (est. ±20%) is converted into an expected points range for the season, based on historical value-to-points relationships across 6 seasons of EPL data.

Measure realized performance

Actual points and non-penalty expected-goal difference (npxG±) are combined to smooth out short-term luck and finishing variance.

Express the gap

VPI is the gap between expected and realized performance, scaled to a familiar ±30 range. Above 0 is value-for-money; below 0 is underdelivering.

Data Sources & Trust Labels

LabelMeaningSource

Verified Data Sourced directly from official match-event data. Opta-grade match statistics feed

Est. ±20% Market value is a modelled estimate, not a transfer fee. Aggregated transfer-market valuations

Touch-Based Derived from touch density, not full positional tracking. Event-level touch coordinates

Low Confidence Sample size is too small for a stable read (e.g. <5 matches). Statistical significance threshold

68%

Forecast-article hit rate, trailing 12 months

We publish predictive calls only on rare, statistically meaningful triggers — and every forecast article links back here once resolved. We don't throw predictions and walk away.

Methodology Plans Data Sources Terms & Privacy

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VALUELENS is not affiliated with Premier League or any football club. Market values are estimates (±20%).